Statistics vs Probability in the News

Posted 280 days ago

This is far off the beaten path for me to post about. Normally my blog posts are about some shiny toy I've recently aquired or a programming technique or trick I've picked up along the way... I do not believe I've EVER posted anything to reflect any political or societal views what-so-ever. But this struck me today and I wanted to voice an opinion.

I was reading an article on CNN today that discussed the increasing number of interracial couples in today's society. From the article:

"Mom always told me, 'Don't you ever bring a white man home,"' 
recalled Jones, echoing an edict issued by many Southern, black 
mothers.

But at 37, the Alexandria divorcee has shifted to dating "anyone 
who asks me out," regardless of race.

"I don't sit around dreaming about the perfect black man I'm 
going to marry," Jones said.

Black women around the country also are reconsidering deep-seated 
reservations toward interracial relationships, reservations 
rooted in America's history of slavery and segregation.

The author makes a vague, unreferenced mention of "statistics" and then continues to say:

[Black men] are nearly seven times more likely to be incarcerated than white
men and more than twice as likely to be unemployed

Which leads me to the purpose of this post. Probability and statistics are two entirely different things. Just because, statistically speaking, there is a 7:1 ratio of black men to white men incarcerated DOES NOT mean that a black man is 7 times more likely to be incarcerated. Nor does a 2:1 unemployment ratio mean that a black men is twice as likely to be unemployed.

I think this is a severely important distinction in a society where the racial divide, while still present, is blurring significantly. The statement that "a black man is seven times more likely" to be incarcerated is harsh, incorrect, and potentially very damaging to the mindset any young black man. It has several negative connotations... you might as jump in your way-way-back machine and shout "you're not as good as that kid, and you're going to jail."

Whereas the statement "there are currently 7 times the number of black men in jail than white", the truth of which I can not confirm, while discouraging, carries no implication for a particular individual based on race... and, in some individuals, could be a motivational point to encourage a change in that statistic.

Probability vs. statistics. It's an important distinction. One that, when used improperly, can impose unintentional consequences on society. One I'd expect to see the editors of our major news outlets aware of. I do not believe the connotations of these statements were intentional by the author, as [s]he is apparently unaware of the difference between these two mathematical concepts (or, more correctly, that the difference did not occur to her/him while writing this article)... but lets face it, "black men are seven times more likely to go to jail" is the kind of crap my Grandma would say.

Original article

Meatwad grinds Boston to a halt...

Posted 468 days ago

I'm sure most everyone saw the news today that several electronic devices located around the city of Boston proved to be a "hoax" and posed no serious thread. Indeed, the devices were part of a marketing campain for Aqua Teen Hunger Force, which was described by the AP as:

... part of the Adult Swim late-night block of programs for adults on the Cartoon Network... [It] centers on a talking milkshake (Master Shake), fries (Frylock) and a meatball (Meatwad).

As my friend, Donald, would say, we're doomed.

This seems wreckless to me

Posted 636 days ago

Many of you may have seen the article on CNN regarding AOL's intention to dig for burried treasure on, or near, the property of one Peggy Greenbaum; the mother of Davis Wolfgang Hawke who was fined $12.8 million dollars in a lawsuit brought by AOL for spamming.

According to the article, AOL believes Hawke may have burried large quantities of gold and platinum bars on his parents property.

Now it seems to me that publishing an article with the general location of a burried treasure, along with the full name of the property owner, is just wreckless. I imagine countless individuals are unpacking their shovels as we speak.

Continually annoyed with the news...

Posted 818 days ago

I've had quite a few laughs over the past few weeks while scanning CNN's headlines, having come across such gems as "Bush calls for end to cartoon violence" and "Cartoon protesters attack KFC, McDonald's". It makes me wonder if anyone reads the headlines and ever thinks they might be better worded another way.

Today though, CNN is running an article from AP about Apple shipping their new Mac Book Pros - the first of their laptops to feature the Intel Core Duo. I ran across this little gem and thought I'd share it, since it'll come to their attention sooner or later and be corrected:

SAN JOSE, California (AP) -- Apple Computer Inc. said 
Tuesday it will begin shipping this week the new MacBook Pro, the
company's first laptop computer to feature an Intel Corp. 
microprocessor.

Apple, which is in the midst of a historic shift to Intel chips, 
last month introduced its first Intel-based desktop computer, the
iMac G5, about six months ahead of schedule.

The iMac G5 clearly does not feature an Intel chip. Can't blame the editors for this one though, as I wouldn't expect an editor to know that. But if you're the guy writing tech articles, you should probably have at least a basic knowledge of your subject matter before delving into the article.

And I thought Atlantic storms had funny names...

Posted 954 days ago

From CNN:

TAIPEI, Taiwan (AP) -- China evacuated 300,000 people from its southeastern coast Sunday as Typhoon Longwang churned toward shore after killing one person, smashing houses and cutting power on the island of Taiwan, officials said.
Gas Price Survey

Posted 986 days ago

Oleg posted that gas in his area is running .99 -- I had to fill up this morning at a whopping .16 (for premium... freakin VW), but regular was running .05. How bad is it in your area? Maybe Bush will use this as an excuse to start drilling Alaska?