Statistics vs Probability in the News

This is far off the beaten path for me to post about. Normally my blog posts are about some shiny toy I've recently aquired or a programming technique or trick I've picked up along the way... I do not believe I've EVER posted anything to reflect any political or societal views what-so-ever. But this struck me today and I wanted to voice an opinion.

I was reading an article on CNN today that discussed the increasing number of interracial couples in today's society. From the article:

"Mom always told me, 'Don't you ever bring a white man home,"' 
recalled Jones, echoing an edict issued by many Southern, black 
mothers.

But at 37, the Alexandria divorcee has shifted to dating "anyone 
who asks me out," regardless of race.

"I don't sit around dreaming about the perfect black man I'm 
going to marry," Jones said.

Black women around the country also are reconsidering deep-seated 
reservations toward interracial relationships, reservations 
rooted in America's history of slavery and segregation.

The author makes a vague, unreferenced mention of "statistics" and then continues to say:

[Black men] are nearly seven times more likely to be incarcerated than white
men and more than twice as likely to be unemployed

Which leads me to the purpose of this post. Probability and statistics are two entirely different things. Just because, statistically speaking, there is a 7:1 ratio of black men to white men incarcerated DOES NOT mean that a black man is 7 times more likely to be incarcerated. Nor does a 2:1 unemployment ratio mean that a black men is twice as likely to be unemployed.

I think this is a severely important distinction in a society where the racial divide, while still present, is blurring significantly. The statement that "a black man is seven times more likely" to be incarcerated is harsh, incorrect, and potentially very damaging to the mindset any young black man. It has several negative connotations... you might as jump in your way-way-back machine and shout "you're not as good as that kid, and you're going to jail."

Whereas the statement "there are currently 7 times the number of black men in jail than white", the truth of which I can not confirm, while discouraging, carries no implication for a particular individual based on race... and, in some individuals, could be a motivational point to encourage a change in that statistic.

Probability vs. statistics. It's an important distinction. One that, when used improperly, can impose unintentional consequences on society. One I'd expect to see the editors of our major news outlets aware of. I do not believe the connotations of these statements were intentional by the author, as [s]he is apparently unaware of the difference between these two mathematical concepts (or, more correctly, that the difference did not occur to her/him while writing this article)... but lets face it, "black men are seven times more likely to go to jail" is the kind of crap my Grandma would say.

Original article